Understanding College Graduation Rates: Why Student Population Matters

College graduation rates may seem straightforward. A student enrolls, and at some point, they either graduate or they don’t. Put those numbers together, and you have a graduation rate.

Except it’s not quite that simple.

There are several ways student graduation and completion rates can be measured, and the method used can significantly affect the story the numbers tell. This is particularly important for institutions that serve large numbers of working adults, transfer students, part-time students and military-connected learners whose educational journeys may not follow a traditional, full-time, four-year path.

For these students, college attendance often has to flex around work, family responsibilities, deployments, relocations and other life circumstances. A student may stop out, return months or years later, transfer credits, change programs or take fewer courses at a time. A traditional graduation-rate calculation may not fully capture that journey.

That doesn’t make one measure inherently good and another bad. It means you need to understand what is being measured and who is being measured before deciding what the number actually tells you.

Start With Who Is Being Measured

One of the most commonly reported federal measures is the IPEDS Graduation Rate.

IPEDS, the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, is maintained by the U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Colleges and universities report a considerable amount of information through it, and that data is used by researchers, policymakers, institutions and consumers.

The traditional IPEDS Graduation Rates measure follows a specific group: first-time, full-time undergraduate students seeking a degree or certificate.

For a college enrolling mostly students who fit that description, that’s a useful population to follow. But what happens when most students attending a college don’t fit that description?

Consider two students.

Both are college students. Both may eventually earn the same type of degree.

But they aren’t represented the same way in a traditional graduation-rate calculation.

That’s an important distinction if you’re using graduation rates to compare colleges.

IPEDS Has Evolved Too

None of this is a criticism of IPEDS. In fact, NCES has recognized the limitation of looking only at first-time, full-time students.

IPEDS Outcome Measures broaden the picture by looking at four undergraduate student populations:

That makes it possible to examine outcomes for students whose paths through college don’t follow the traditional first-time, full-time model.

NCES has also published research specifically examining outcomes for traditional and nontraditional undergraduate students.

So the issue isn’t that federal data is somehow wrong. It’s that different federal measures answer different questions.

NAU Is a Good Example of Why the Population Matters

National American University looks considerably different from the traditional college population.

According to NAU’s 2026 Student Achievement Report:

Many students also arrive at NAU after attending another college.

So, if you’re trying to understand outcomes at NAU, a measure built around students entering college for the first time and attending full-time is useful information. But it’s also describing a population that looks very different from much of NAU’s actual student body.

That doesn’t mean the measure should be ignored. It means it needs context.

There Are Other Ways to Look at Student Progress

NAU tracks additional measures because we’re interested in what happens to students beyond a single federal cohort definition.

For example, NAU tracks successful course completion from a student’s first course through graduation. The university has established successful course completion benchmarks of 75% for undergraduate students and 70% for graduate students.

NAU also reported 27,446 degrees conferred since November 1994, with 246 students completing their programs between February 13, 2025 and March 4, 2026.

Those numbers aren’t substitutes for IPEDS graduation rates. They’re measuring different things. And that’s really the point.

A graduation rate, course completion rate, persistence measure, degree count and graduate survey can all tell us something useful. None of them, by themselves, tell us everything there is to know about whether students are succeeding.

NAU also surveys graduates about their experiences after completing their programs. Among respondents to its September 2025 graduate survey:

Other respondents reported being employed in a position related to their degree (54%), receiving an increase in pay (22%), taking a new job role (18%), or receiving a promotion (10%).

These are survey responses, not employment placement rates. Like the other measures discussed here, they provide another piece of information rather than a complete measure of institutional performance.

So, What Should You Look At?

If you’re comparing colleges, don’t stop at the graduation-rate percentage. Look at who was included. Was the measure based on first-time students? Full-time students? Transfer students? Part-time students? How closely does that population resemble you?

Then look at other available measures. For an 18-year-old entering college full-time for the first time, a traditional graduation rate may be particularly relevant. For a 35-year-old transferring credits and taking courses part-time while working, other outcome measures may provide important additional context.

That’s not an argument for ignoring college outcome data. Quite the opposite. The more consequential the decision, the more important it is to understand what the data actually measures.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is an IPEDS graduation rate?

The traditional IPEDS Graduation Rates measure tracks first-time, full-time degree- or certificate-seeking undergraduate students and reports how many complete within specified periods of time.

Does a college’s graduation rate include every student?

Not necessarily. It depends on the measure being reported. Traditional IPEDS Graduation Rates focus on first-time, full-time students. IPEDS Outcome Measures include additional populations, including part-time and non-first-time students.

Why do transfer students matter when evaluating graduation rates?

A transfer student has already attended another college and therefore isn’t a first-time college student. Depending on the measure, that student may not be part of the cohort used to calculate a traditional graduation rate.

Are IPEDS graduation rates still useful?

Yes. They provide standardized data that make it possible to examine outcomes across institutions. The important part is understanding which students are included in a particular measure before deciding how relevant it is to the question you’re trying to answer.

What are IPEDS Outcome Measures?

IPEDS Outcome Measures broaden traditional graduation reporting by examining four undergraduate populations: first-time/full-time, first-time/part-time, non-first-time/full-time and non-first-time/part-time students.

Sources

• U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Measuring Student Success in IPEDS: Graduation Rates (GR), Graduation Rates 200% (GR200), and Outcome Measures (OM).
• National Center for Education Statistics. Postsecondary Outcomes for Nontraditional and Traditional Undergraduate Students. Condition of Education, May 2024.
• Institute of Education Sciences / National Center for Education Statistics. Measuring “Traditional” and “Non-Traditional” Student Success in IPEDS: Data Insights from the IPEDS Outcome Measures (OM) Survey Component.
• NCES/IPEDS. National American University-Rapid City 2025 Data Feedback Report.
• National American University. Student Achievement, February 2026.